The 2008 W's

Ok, ok, I guess it is time to start asking questions about the 2008 presidential race. Why not?

Let's use the official First Grade Standard Current Events Format by focusing on the five W's: who, what, when, where, and (sometimes) why.

Who . . . supports Hillary, and how strong is that support? Polls always have her as the clear Dem favorite (with Obama and Edwards making some gains), but is that a product of name recognition? I suspect it is.

What . . . is Joe Biden thinking with his stupid jokes about Delaware being a former slave state? In South Carolina (I think), he recently made some comment about how Delaware would've fought with the south in the civil war if they could've found it, but there were a couple states in the way. Har har. That's not funny, it is weird, and it is politically dangerous. I don't think he really means that he thinks Delaware should've thought with the confederacy, but why is he even going there at all? I actually like Biden and think he'd be a great President, but the guy makes botched jokes every other week (though he actually has a sense of humor to play it off slightly better, unlike Kerry).

When . . . should these candidates formally announce their intentions to run? So far, only scrub candidates (Duncan Hunter, Tom Vilsack) have done it formally, because that is their only prayer for any media attention. But does it really matter whether Hillary announces now or in next September? What about possible insurgent candidates, like Newt Gingrich--should they establish themselves early, or only come when people are tired of the other politicians?

Where . . . are the areas of the country that are truly in play? The 2006 midterms wiped out Republicans in the northeast the way Dems have been wiped-out in non-black areas of the south. The industrial midwest leans pretty strongly Dem these days as well. Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia and Arkansas seem to be toying with a return to Democrats. But most interesting is the libertarian west's distaste for Republicans these days. The most shocking result of the 2006 midterms to me was actually only a near-loss for the Republicans, but the Wyoming congressional race (which is a statewide election since WY has only one congressperson) split 48%-48. That shocks me. Is there really an opportunity for Dems in the west, particularly with libertarians?

Why . . . has no one mentioned what a liability McCain's steadfastly stubborn position on Iraq will be for him in the 2008 presidential race? Do we expect that American sentiment about the war in Iraq will go back up in the next two years? Imagine that we actually pull out most to all of our troops by 2008 against McCain's wishes--do you think he'd suggest that because we shouldn't have left, we should go back in? I think that the conventional wisdom about McCain's strength totally ignores the Iraq issue.